IMPLICAIONS OF POPULATION GOWTH:Additional GDP needed per year

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Lesson 39

IMPLICAIONS OF POPULATION GOWTH

Population is a big reservoir of human resource for the economic development of a country. In fact it is

the quality of the human resource that makes a difference for the economy. Poor quality of this resource

could be a burden whereas high quality can be an asset. From another angle one has to see how much

income is to be distributed among how many people. Same amount of income distributed among a large

number of people brings smaller per head share compared with if there is a smaller number of people who

have to share the said income. One has to see at what rate income is increasing and at what rate population

is increasing. Look at the information provided in table 1. Gross domestic product (GDP) of Pakistan has

increased from Rs. 20 billion in 1950 to Rs. 4018 billion in 2003 which is a 200 percent increase. But when

we look at the per capita income it increased from $ 79 in 1950 to $ 492 in 2005 which is only 6 percent

increase during this period. Though there is a 200 percent increase in the GDP but when we try to

distribute it as per head it gives only 6 percent increase because there is so much of increase in population.

Table 1: GDP and per Capita income of Pakistan, 1950-2003

1950

2003

Increase

GDP

20*

4018*

200

Per capita income

79^

492^

* In billion Rs. ^ In US $

South Korea and Pakistan are often capered with respect to population change and per capita income

change. One reason for this comparison is that the two countries were similar in population size and in per

capita income in 1951. Table 2 shows that in 1951 the population of Pakistan was 33 million and that of

South Korea was 20 million. In

Table 2: Comparison of Pakistan with South Korea

1951

2004

___________________

________________________

Pakistan

S. Korea

Pakistan

S. Korea

Population

33 million

20 million

151 million

47.7 million

GDP

$ 79

$ 82

$ 503

$10, 700

2004 the population of Pakistan increased to 151 million and that of South Korea it went up only to 47.7

million. Compared with Pakistan this is very small increase. With respect to gross domestic product (GDP)

in 1951 Pakistan had $79 and South Korea had $ 82. In 2004 the GDP of Pakistan increased to $ 503 and

that of South Korea to $ 10,700. The big increase in population of Pakistan gave a smaller per capita GDP

whereas a smaller increase in population of South Korea gave a bigger per head increase in GDP.

Another implication of population growth may be seen with respect to the status of employment and

unemployment. In 1970-71 there were 18.5 million employed people in Pakistan which increased to 39.4

million which is about two times increase (see fig. 1). It is interesting to note in 1970-71 there were 0.4

million unemployed people which increased to 3.3 million showing 8 times increase in unemployment.

Such an ironical increase in unemployment has emerged due a rapid increase in population

Introduction to Sociology SOC101

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

An increase in population has a negative impact on the size of farms. Due to the law of inheritance, on the

death of the owner the landholding is divided among the heirs as provided in the law of inheritance. The

information provided in table 3 shows that the number of farms under 3 acres has increased between 1980

and 1990. The small size farms become smaller and smaller and ultimately become uneconomic for

purposes of cultivation. It affects the employment of the owners, agricultural production, and economy of

the country.

Table3: Number of private farms by size

Farm size

1980

1990

(acres)

Number

(million)

Under 3 Acres

2.07

50.90

3.25

64.10

3-5

0.92

22.60

0.86

17.00

5-10

0.71

17.40

0.62

12.20

10+

0.37

9.15

0.34

6.80

Total

4.07

100.0

5.07

100.0

The population projections show that the population of Pakistan is likely to increase rapidly and is expected

to reach the figure of 170.1 million by the year 2010, the year when the government of Pakistan expects

some stabilization in population growth (see figure 3).

Figure 3: Population Projection, 1998-2010 (in millions)

170.1

166.5

163.0

159.4

155.8

152.3

148.8

145.4

142.0

138.7

135.5

132.3

129.2

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Pakistan has young population, 43 percent being under 15 years of age. Among these children 5-14 year

olds are supposed to be in school, therefore they need school facilities. In 1998 the number children aged

5-14 years was 31.7 million. It has been projected that by the year 2010 their number is likely to increase to

40.3 million (see fig. 4).

Of these children there were 11.9 million who were supposed to be in primary school. This number is likely

to increase to 20.3 million by the year 2010 (see fig.5). They will certainly be in need of primary school

facilities if we want them to be in school. One of the facilities is the availability of teachers. In 1998 there

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

were 11.9 million primary school teachers. In order to meet the requirements in 2010 the country shall be

in need of 20.3 million primary teachers (see fig. 6).

Another important requirement is the availability of schools. In 1998 the required number of schools was

79 thousand. To cater to the needs of the projected increase of school going children, the country shall

need 162.6 thousand additional schools (see fig. 7). For the creation of primary school facilities the

expenditure needed in 2010 shall be Rs. 68 billion (see fig. 8).

Figure 4: Population aged 5-14 years, 1998-2010 (in millions)

40.0

40.2

40.3

39.8

39.6

39.3

39.1

38.8

38.1

37.2

36.4

35.6

34.7

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Figure 5: Primary school students, 1998-2010(in millions)

20.3

19.4

18.5

18.0

17.5

17.1

16.6

16.1

15.3

14.4

13.5

12.7

11.9

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Figure 6: Primary Teachers Required, 1998-2010 (in 000)

162.6

152.8

143.3

137.2

131.6

126.1

120.7

115.3

107.7

100.1

92.8

85.7

79.0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Figure 7: Primary Schools Required 1998-2010 (in 000)

68.0

61.7

55.8

51.3

47.3

43.6

40.3

37.3

33.7

30.2

27.1

24.1

21.3

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Health is another social sector which has to feel the impact of the growth of population.

In 1998 there was a need for 20.2 thousand doctors' production and management. With the increase in

population this need is likely to increase to 45.4 thousand by the year 2010 (see fig. 9). The annual recurrent

expenditure required for this facility was 3.7 billion in 1998 which is likely to increase to 13.5 billion by the

year 2010 (see fig. 10). Then one looks into the question: will Pakistan be able to allocate that amount of

resources in this sector.

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Figure 8: Doctors production and management, 1998-2010 (in 000)

250.2

220.1

195.6

175.2

157.9

143.3

130.6

119.5

109.8

101.2

93.6

86.8

80.7

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Additional GDP needed per year

We have already seen in a previous lecture that in Pakistan 3 million people are being added every year.

Presently GDP/per capita in the country is US $ 652. To provide the same amount per capita GDP for this

annual increase in population is (652 x 3 =) $1.956 In order to create additional GDP of $1.956 billion to

maintain the current per capita GDP, Pakistan needs an additional investment $5.868 billion annually. Will

we be able to make such annual investment?

Hard Facts

Given the rate of increase in population growth, economic development, and social sector development, the

hard facts are:

Population

Population living below poverty line

49 million

Population with NO access to safe drinking water

54 million

Population with one room houses

56 million

Population with no sanitation

76 million

Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births)

Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000 live births)

350-500

Deliveries at home (%)

Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births)

Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000 live births)

350-500

Deliveries at home (%)

Environment

Forest Cover

· At less than 5% of the total surface area is being reduced by 2.5% - 3.1% per year ,

which is the 2nd highest deforestation rate in the world.

Land Degradation

· 38% of the irrigated land is water logged and 14% is saline.

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

· Air Pollution

· Suspended particle matters in air in most urban centers are 6.4 times higher than

WHO guidelines.

· Traffic Increase

· 0.8million to 4.0 million over last 20 years 500 % increase.

Summary of Implications

Shortage

Educational facilities

Living Space

Health Services

Arable Land

Housing Units

Clean water

Food

Increase

Unemployment

Over crowding

Land fragmentation

Katchi abadis

Import of food

Poverty

Environmental problems

Unrest

Congestion in households

Crime

Conclusions

Issues related to population need to be advocated for from the top level of the government;

The public sector allocations for social sectors remain very low and need to be enhanced;

Population needs to be taken up as a core basis for any future development planning;

Issues related to gender and adolescents need to be addressed; and

Fighting poverty, illiteracy, ill health and meeting unmet needs are the major challenges.

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