POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued):Age Distribution, Sex Composition

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Lesson 38

POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN (Continued)

Composition

In lecture 37 we looked at the size of population. Lecture 38 shall focus on the composition of population

of Pakistan as well as some implications of the Population Planning Program. In the composition of

population first of let us look at the age distribution of the people of Pakistan.

Age Distribution

According to 1998 Population Census of Pakistan, 43 percent of the population was of children under 15

years, 53 percent was between the ages of 15-64 years, and about 4 percent was 65 years and over (see fig.

1). This information shows that a big proportion of the population has been of children implying that they

are dependents on the economy of the country. About four percent of the population happens to be of old

persons, another group of dependents. About one half of the population is that of women, who, with the

exception of few, are usually considered as dependents. In this way the age structure of the population of

Pakistan shows that majority (nearly two thirds) of them are dependents. Of the dependents, children need

special services like health, education, playground, and family care. In this way the young population puts

special demand on the resources of the country. Similarly the senior citizens need special services.

Figure 1

< 15 yrs.

15-64 yrs.

65+ yrs

Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Sex Composition

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Figurer 3

Population Pyramid of Pakistan - 1998

Population Pyramid of Pakistan 1998

Elderly 65 + Population

4.8%

Females in

Reproductive

Productive

53%

Age Group

age group 15-

22%

Child

Population

0-14

43%

Prior to the industrial revolution the age and sex pyramids of the developed countries also looked like those

of the present day developing countries. Just by looking at the population pyramid one could easily tell

whether this pyramid is that of a highly developed country, a developed country, or that of a developing

country (see fig. 4). As one can see from the figure, the base of the population pyramid of a developing

country is very broad indicating that the population has a large number of children. The population of such

countries has the potential of rapid growth. Sex ratio is in favor of males. Then there is a sharp tapering off

of the pyramid whereby it becomes conical. At the senior citizen's age the proportion of population is very

small.

Figure 4

Prior to the industrial revolution the age and sex pyramids of the developed countries also had similar shape

as that of Pakistan. Presently although the age and sex pyramids of the developed countries have quite a

different shape still they are being called pyramids.

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As the countries move on the scale of development, its birth rates start falling and the base of the pyramid

does not remain broad and also it does not remain as steep as it was seen in case of developing countries.

The bars indicating the male and female distribution start becoming different. The bars indicating the

females start becoming longer than those of bars for males. Since the pyramid is no more conical, therefore

it indicates that the proportion of old persons in the population starts increasing. On the whole the

population of such countries shows slow growth rate.

Countries with zero population growth have a barrel shaped pyramid. Here different bars representing age

become almost equal except at the top for the senior citizen. The bars at each age for females are either

equal to the bars for males or these are longer than the bars for males.

There is also a pyramid showing "negative growth" of population. In this pyramid the base of the pyramid

is quite squeezed indicating that there are no children. This pyramid starts bulging out from the middle

suggesting some increase in adult population which is primarily due to immigrants entering the country to

fill the gap created by the declining fertility of the local population. This pyramid has become comparatively

broad at the top due to the increase in the number of old people. Countries with such population have

"aging" population.

The present age and sex pyramid of Pakistan shows high growth potential for population. With the future

socioeconomic developments it is expected there will be a decline in fertility. With this decline in fertility

the lower bars of the pyramid start getting shorter than what was in 1998. Also their length starts becoming

equal to each other. The bars on top of the pyramid representing the old people above 65 year start getting

bigger than the bars in the previous pyramid (see fig. 5).

Women in Reproductive Age 42.36 million

Figure 5

62.79 million

Population Pyramids of Pakistan

Literacy Composition

Literacy

has

been

considered to be a

crucial variable in the

development

Old Age 6.46 million

country.

Pakistan

started with a very low

literacy rate. In 1961

Women in

only 17 percent of the

Reproductive

Age 28.8

population aged 10 year

million

and above was literate.

There have been small

55.54

million

increases in the literacy

rates in the country.

Table 1 shows that at

the time of third population census (1972) there was small increase of 5 percentage points over the previous

population census of 1961 and an increase of small percentage points have been observed at the time of

every population census. During the year 2004 literacy rate in the country has been estimated to be at 54

percent.

Table 1: Literacy rate (%)

________________________________________________________________________

Year

Rate

Year

Rate_______

1961

1990

1972

1998

1981

2004

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Female literacy rates are much lower than the male population. Similarly literacy rates in the rural area are

lower than the urban areas. The literacy situation of the rural women appears to be the lowest.

Despite the fact that literacy rate has been increasing in Pakistan, it is interesting to note that the absolute

number of illiterates in the country has also been increasing. The information provided in table 2 shows that

in 1961 there were 22 million persons who were illiterate and by the year 2004 this number has increased to

69 million, which is a more than three times increase. During the same period, the literacy rate increased

from 17 percent to 54 percent, more than three times increase. It might look ironical to have such a

scenario but this reality has emerged due to the rapid growth of population. The high growth rate of

population has been one of the important factors that neutralize the achievement of increase in literacy.

Table 2: Absolute number of illiterates (in million)

________________________________________________________________________

Year

No.

Year

No.

1961

1990

1972

1998

1981

2004

Distribution of Population

The distribution of population may be looked at from different dimensions: rural-urban distribution,

provincial distribution, distribution by different city size, etc. Rural-urban distribution, as seen in the figure

6, shows that as of 2004 every third person was living in cities. At the time of partition every fifth person

was living in cities. An increase in

urban population has mostly been due

to migration of rural population to

the urban areas.

Most of such

migrants come to cities in search of

job.

Figure 6

Urban Population

Implications of Population

Program

Given the scenario of population

growth in the country, the

government of Pakistan started population program about fifty years back. Over the years a good amount

of effort has gone into it for the creation of awareness about family planning, changing the attitudes of

couples in its favor, and motivating the couples for the adoption of family planning practices (the use of

contraceptives). As an outcome of government investments as well as through the efforts of NGOs some

of the parameters of population are given in table 3. The data show that there has been progress on three

important parameters of knowledge about family planning, the use of contraceptives, and fertility rate. It

has been found that as of 2004 there were 96 percent couples who were in the know-of family planning but

only a little over one third were using some family planning method (contraceptive). There appears to be a

big gap between the knowledge about family planning and the practicing of family planning. It has been

found that the fertility rate (the total number of children born to a woman during her life time) has declined

for example from 5.4 children per woman in 1991, to 4.9 in 1997, to 4.1 children in 2004.

Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Table 3: Population parameters (1991 to 2004)

______________________________________________________________________

Parameter

1991

1997

2004

Knowledge (%)

Use of Contraceptives 12

Fertility rate

5.4

4.9

4.1

Looking at the world situation, the information provided in table 4 shows that the population growth rate

(PGR) of the world in 2002 was 1.3 percent, and the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) of 61 percent. In

the more developed regions of the world the PGR was 0.1 and CPR 68 percent whereas in the less

developed regions the corresponding PGR was 1.6 and CPR was 60 percent. Asian figures show a PGR of

1.3 percent and CPR of 64. Comparing with this situation it looks that Pakistan has yet to cover long

distance to come closer to the average figures of Asia or of less developed regions, what to think about the

figures of more developed regions.

Table 4: Population Growth Rate (PGR) and Contraceptive Prevalence Rate

(CPR) 2002

________________________________________________________________________

Regions

PGR (%)

CPR (%)

World

1.3

More Developed

0.1

Less Developed

1.6

Asia

1.3

Comparing Pakistan with some of the Muslim countries, the information provided in table 5 shows that

Pakistan is way behind Iran, Turkey, Morocco, Indonesia, Egypt and Bangladesh on the counts of CPR,

PGR, and TFR. A program which is well accepted in some other Muslim countries, why it is not that much

accepted in Pakistan? We have to explore the reasons for such differences.

Table 5: PGR, CPR, and Total Fertility Rate (TFR), 2002

_____________________________________________________________________

Muslim countries

TFR(%)

PGR(%)

CPR(%) .

Egypt

3.5

2.0

Morocco

3.1

1.9

Turkey

2.5

1.5

Iran

2.5

1.2

Indonesia

2.6

1.6

Bangladesh

3.3

1.7

Pakistan (2004)

4.1

1.9

Keeping in view the existing parameters of population program the population projections made by the

government suggest that the population of

Pakistan is going to increase from 148.6

million in 2003 to 167.7 million in 2010,

and to 195.5 million in 2020 (see fig. 7).

Also 2020 is the year when Pakistan is

expected to have population stabilization.

We shall discuss this concept of population

stabilization later. It has been further

projected that the population of Pakistan is

going to double by the year 2040.

Figure 7

Introduction to Sociology SOC101

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