POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN:World Population Growth

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Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Lesson 37

POPULATION PROFILE OF PAKISTAN

How does population grow?

Prior to the discussion of the population profile of Pakistan let us see how does population grow? If we are

looking at the world population growth then it is simply:

Births Deaths in a year per1000 population. Suppose births in a year are 40 and deaths are 10 then 40 10

= 30 per 1000 population or 3.0 per cent growth rate per annum. (Population growth rate is presented in

percentages).

For a country population growth rate is calculated as: Births Deaths + (immigration emigration).

For a province or district population growth within a country: Births Deaths + (immigration

emigration) + (In-migration Out-migration). In-migration and out-migration is the internal migration

within the country.

Urban area population growth within a country: Births Deaths + (immigration emigration) + (In-

migration Out-migration) + Expansion in the urban area.

Suppose the population grows at 3 percent per annum, what does it mean?

It means the population would double in 23 years. How? The formula is very simple:

Just divide 70 years by the rate of growth: 70/3 = 23 years.

It may be called LAW OF SEVENTY.

World Population Growth

Population growth trends show that the world population in 1950 was 2.5 billion which increased to 6.296

billion in 2003, showing 152 percent increase (see fig. 1). In the less developed countries, during the same

period, the population increased from 1.7 billion to 5.098 billion, showing an increase of 200 percent.

Compared with them in the more developed countries, during the same period, the population increased

from 0.8 billion to 1.198 billion, indicating only a 50 percent increase. These figures suggest that the world

population is increasing very fast; and the biggest contribution to this increase is being made by the less

developed countries.

Figure 1

Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Population has been growing slowly in the past. It took thousands of years for the world population to

reach the figure of 1 billion, which was estimated to be in the year1804 (see table 1). It took only 123 year

to add the second billion to the population of this planet and that happened in 1927. For the addition of

third billion it took only 33 years and that happened in 1960. The population of the world has been

growing so fast that for the addition of fourth billion it took only 13 years which was in 1974. For the

addition of fifth billion it took only 12 years and that was in 1987. Within the next 12 years the world

population has seen the addition of sixth billion, which happened in 1999. Presently we have more than 6

billion people living on this planet earth and the population is still growing.

Table 1: Time taken to add one billion to world population

_____________

.___________________

______Year

World Population

Years____

1804

---

1927

123

1960

1974

1987

1999

12 .

In table 2 it is interesting to note that the more developed regions have less population (1198 million in

2003) and high GNP/capita ($ 22060 in 2002) compared with less developed regions (population 5098

million and GNP/capita of $3580).

Table 2: Population and GNP/capita

___________________________________________________________________

Population

GNP/

Region

(million) 2003

Capita ($) 2000

World

6296

7140

More Dev

1198

22060

Less Dev

5098

3580

Specifically talking about Pakistan, table 3 shows that the country has an area of 0.796 million sq. kilometers

which comes to be 0.6 percent of the world. With respect to population it had reached an estimated 151

million people in 2004 which was 2.4 percent of the world population.

Table 3: Pakistan: Share of the World 2004

__________________________________________________________________

Area

0.796 Million Sq. Km.

0.6 %

Population

151 Million

2.4 %

Information provided in table 4 shows that in 2003 the world population was growing at the rate of 1.3

percent and it was expected that it will take 54 years to double it population. Since the more developed

regions of the world have been growing at the rate of only 0.1 percent therefore it will take a very long

period (700 years) to double its population. Compared with them the less developed regions have been

growing at the rate of 1.6 percent, therefore they will take comparatively shorter time to double their

population (44 years).

In 2003 Pakistan had a population of 148.6 million, which was growing at the rate of 2.06 percent, and it

was estimated that its population will double in 34 years. Compared with other countries in the region like

Bangladesh, Iran, India, and Indonesia, Pakistan has higher rate of population growth, therefore it is likely

to take shorter period to double than the said countries.

Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Table 4: Population, rate of growth and doubling time, 2003

________________________________________________________________________

Population

Growth Doubling

Regions

(Million)

Rate (%)

Time (years.)

World

6296

1.3

More Developed

1198

0.1

700

Less Developed

5098

1.6

Pakistan

148.6

2.06

Bangladesh

136

1.7

Iran

1.2

India

1067

1.7

Indonesia

220

1.6

44 .

The population of the country is increasing quite rapidly. Table 5 shows that in 1950 Pakistan with 33

million people was at 14th place in population rank order of the countries. In 2004 with 151 million people,

by surpassing China, India, USA, Indonesia, and Brazil, Pakistan was at 6th place in population rank order of

the countries. During the last 54 years the population of the country has increased about five times.

Table 5: Pakistan's population rank order in the world

_______________________________________________________________________

Year

Rank

Population (Million)

1950

2004

151

* After China, India, USA, Indonesia, and Brazil having surpassed Japan, Bangladesh, Nigeria,

Russia, etc.

Prior to 1961-71 decade the rate of growth has been lower than what has been found in 2004. One of the

important reasons was the high death rate which had been neutralizing the high birth rate. In line with the

theory of demographic transition the death rate falls earlier than a decline in the birth rate and also the death

rate declines sharply thereby creating a big gap between the birth rate and the death rate resulting in

relatively high growth rate. Pakistan has been certainly passing through demographic transition as one can

see a rise in population growth during the census period of 1961-72 (3.66), then tapering of during 1972-

81(3.05), and then further decline (2.69) during 1981-1998 as well as during 2003-04 (1.9) (see table 6).

Table 6: Population growth rate in Pakistan

_______________________________________________________________________

Period

Growth Rate (%)

1951-61

2.45

1961-71

3.66

1972-81

3.05

1981-98

2.69

2003-04

1.90

Although there is some visible declining trend in the population growth rate, yet the mere fact that the

number of persons being added annually is so huge that the overall impact may not be remarkable. One

could look at the number of births that took place during the year 2002. The data presented in table 7 show

that in one year 4, 366, 270 births took place which comes to as 8 births per minute being added to the

population of the country.

Introduction to Sociology SOC101

Table 7: Number of births, deaths, and net addition of population during 2002

________________________________________________________________________

Time period

No. of births

No. of deaths

Net addition

In One Year

4,366,270

1,222,000

3,144,270

Per Month

363,855

101,833

262, 022

Per Day

11,962

3,348

8,614

Per Minute

Looking at the number of deaths, there were 1,222,000 cases in the year 2002, which comes to 2 deaths per

minute. The resultant difference between births and deaths shows that every minute 6 persons and by the

year 3,144,270 persons were being added to the population of Pakistan. The addition of 3.14 million

persons means adding the population equal to the cities of Multan + Sukkar + Peshawar + Quetta. For

these people the government may have to arrange facilities for their decent standard of living.

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