Introduction
to Economics ECO401
VU
Lesson
4.2
BACKGROUND
TO DEMAND/CONSUMPTION
(CONTINUED................)
The
Problem of Uncertainty:
The
problem of uncertainty is integral to
consumption decisions especially in
the matter of
purchasing
durable goods. Uncertainty
means assigning probabilities to
the outcomes.
A
consumer's response to uncertainty
depends upon her attitude to
risk: whether she
is:
a.
Risk averse.
b.
Risk-loving.
c.
Risk neutral.
Risk
means
to take a chance after the
probabilities have been
assigned.
The
odds ratio (OR) is the
ratio of the probability of
success to the probability of
failure. It can
be
equal to 1, less than 1 or
greater than 1. If it is equal to 1 we
call it fair odds, if less
then 1
unfavorable
odds, and if greater 1 then
favorable odds.
A
risk neutral person is
one who buys a good
when OR > 1. He is indifferent when OR
= 1
and
will not buy when OR <
1.
A
risk averse person will
not buy if OR < 1. He will
also not buy if OR = 1. He
might also not
decide
to buy if OR > 1.
A
risk loving person will
buy if OR > 1 or = 1, but he might
also buy when OR is <
1.
The
degree of risk aversion
increases as your income
level falls, due to
diminishing marginal
utility
of income.
Risk
aversion is a common feature of
rational utility maximizing
behavior by the
average
consumer.
The
total utility curve for
a risk neutral person will
be a straight line while
that of a risk averse
person
will be convex. The greater
the convexity (curvature)
the more risk averse
the person
will
be.
Risk
hedging can be
used to reduce the extent to
which concerns about
uncertainty affect
our
daily
lives.
Insurance
companies operate under the
principle of law of large
numbers.
In
the presence of asymmetric
information, an insurance company
has to contend with
the
problems
of adverse selection (people
who want to buy insurance
are also the most
risky
customers;
an ex-ante problem) and
moral hazard (once a person
is insured his
behavior
might
become more rash; an ex-post
problem).
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