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Management
of Financial Institutions - MGT
604
VU
Lecture
# 35
Role
of Insurance Companies
Insurance,
in law and economics, is a form of
risk management primarily used to
hedge
against
the risk of a contingent
loss. Insurance is defined as
the equitable transfer of
the risk
of
a loss, from one entity to
another, in exchange for a
premium. Insurer,
in economics, is
the
company that sells the
insurance. Insurance
rate is a factor
used to determine the
amount,
called the premium,
to be charged for a certain amount of
insurance coverage.
Risk
management, the practice of
appraising and controlling risk,
has evolved as a discrete
field
of study and practice.
Principles
of insurance
Commercially
insurable risks typically
share seven common
characteristics.
1.
A
large number of homogeneous
exposure units. The
vast majority of
insurance
policies
are provided for individual
members of very large classes.
Automobile
insurance,
for example, covered about
175 million automobiles in the
United States
in
2004.[2] The existence of a large
number of homogeneous exposure units
allows
insurers
to benefit from the
so-called "law of large
numbers," which in effect
states
that
as the number of exposure
units increases, the actual
results are
increasingly
likely
to become close to expected results.
There are exceptions to this
criterion.
Lloyd's
of London is famous for
insuring the life or health
of actors, actresses and
sports
figures. Satellite Launch
insurance covers events that
are infrequent. Large
commercial
property policies may insure
exceptional properties for
which there are
no
`homogeneous' exposure units. Despite
failing on this criterion,
many exposures
like
these are generally considered to be
insurable.
2.
Definite
Loss. The
event that gives rise to the
loss that is subject to
insurance
should,
at least in principle, take place at a known
time, in a known place, and
from
a
known cause. The classic
example is death of an insured on a life
insurance policy.
Fire,
automobile accidents, and worker injuries
may all easily meet this
criterion.
Other
types of losses may only be
definite in theory. Occupational
disease, for
instance,
may involve prolonged
exposure to injurious conditions
where no specific
time,
place or cause is identifiable. Ideally,
the time, place and cause of a loss
should
be
clear enough that a
reasonable person, with sufficient
information, could
objectively
verify all three
elements.
3.
Accidental
Loss. The
event that constitutes the
trigger of a claim should
be
fortuitous,
or at least outside the control of
the beneficiary of the
insurance. The loss
should
be `pure,' in the sense that
it results from an event for
which there is only
the
opportunity
for cost. Events that
contain speculative elements,
such as ordinary
business
risks, are generally not
considered insurable.
4.
Large
Loss. The size
of the loss must be meaningful
from the perspective of
the
insured.
Insurance premiums need to
cover both the expected cost of
losses, plus the
cost
of issuing and administering the
policy, adjusting losses, and
supplying the
capital
needed to reasonably assure
that the insurer will be able to
pay claims. For
small
losses these latter costs
may be several times the
size of the expected cost of
losses.
There is little point in
paying such costs unless
the protection offered has
real
value
to a buyer.
5.
Affordable
Premium. If the
likelihood of an insured event is so
high, or the cost of
the
event so large, that the
resulting premium is large
relative to the amount
of
protection
offered, it is not likely
that anyone will buy
insurance, even if on
offer.
Further,
as the accounting profession
formally recognizes in financial
accounting
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standards
(See FAS 113 for
example), the premium cannot
be so large that there
is
not
a reasonable chance of a significant loss to
the insurer. If there is no
such chance
of
loss, the transaction may
have the form of insurance,
but not the
substance.
6.
Calculable
Loss. There
are two elements that
must be at least estimable, if
not
formally
calculable: the probability of loss, and
the attendant cost.
Probability of
loss
is generally an empirical exercise, while
cost has more to do with the
ability of a
reasonable
person in possession of a copy of the
insurance policy and a proof of
loss
associated
with a claim presented under
that policy to make a reasonably
definite
and
objective evaluation of the
amount of the loss recoverable as a
result of the
claim.
7.
Limited
risk of catastrophically large
losses. The
essential risk is often
aggregation.
If the same event can cause
losses to numerous policyholders of
the
same
insurer, the ability of that
insurer to issue policies
becomes constrained, not
by
factors
surrounding the individual
characteristics of a given policyholder,
but by the
factors
surrounding the sum of all
policyholders so exposed. Typically,
insurers
prefer
to limit their exposure to a loss
from a single event to some
small portion of
their
capital base, on the order
of 5 percent. Where the loss can be
aggregated, or an
individual
policy could produce
exceptionally large claims,
the capital
constraint
will
restrict an insurers appetite for
additional policyholders. The classic
example is
earthquake
insurance, where the ability
of an underwriter to issue a new
policy
depends
on the number and size of the
policies that it has already
underwritten.
Wind
insurance in hurricane zones,
particularly along coast
lines, is another
example
of
this phenomenon. In extreme
cases, the aggregation can affect
the entire industry,
since
the combined capital of
insurers and reinsurers can be small
compared to the
needs
of potential policyholders in areas
exposed to aggregation risk. In
commercial
fire
insurance it is possible to find single
properties whose total
exposed value is
well
in excess of any individual
insurer's capital constraint.
Such properties are
generally
shared among several
insurers, or are insured by a
single insurer who
syndicates
the risk into the
reinsurance market.
Indemnification
The
technical definition of "indemnity"
means to make whole again. There
are two types of
insurance
contracts; 1) an "indemnity" policy and
2) a "pay on behalf" or "on
behalf of"[3]
policy.
The difference is significant on paper,
but rarely material in
practice.
An
"indemnity" policy will not
pay claims until the
insured has paid out of
pocket to some
third
party; i.e. a visitor to
your home slips on a floor
that you left wet and
sues you for
$10,000
and wins. Under an "indemnity"
policy the homeowner would
have to come up
with
the $10,000 to pay for the
visitors fall and then would
be "indemnified" by the
insurance
carrier for the out of
pocket costs (the
$10,000).
Under
the same situation, a "pay
on behalf" policy, the
insurance carrier would pay
the
claim
and the insured (the
homeowner) would not be out
of pocket anything. Most
modern
liability
insurance is written on the
basis of "pay on behalf"
language.
An
entity seeking to transfer risk
(an individual, corporation, or
association of any type,
etc.)
becomes the 'insured' party
once risk is assumed by an 'insurer',
the insuring party,
by
means
of a contract, called an insurance
'policy'. Generally, an insurance
contract includes,
at
a minimum, the following
elements: the parties (the
insurer, the insured,
the
beneficiaries),
the premium, the period of
coverage, the particular loss event
covered, the
amount
of coverage (i.e., the amount to be paid
to the insured or beneficiary in
the event of
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a
loss), and exclusions (events
not covered). An insured is
thus said to be
"indemnified"
against
the loss events covered in
the policy.
When
insured parties experience a loss for a
specified peril, the coverage
entitles the
policyholder
to make a 'claim' against the insurer
for the covered amount of
loss as specified
by
the policy. The fee paid by
the insured to the insurer
for assuming the risk is
called the
'premium'.
Insurance premiums from many
insureds are used to fund
accounts reserved for
later
payment of claims--in theory
for a relatively few
claimants--and for overhead
costs.
So
long as an insurer maintains
adequate funds set aside
for anticipated losses
(i.e.,
reserves),
the remaining margin is an
insurer's profit.
When
is a policy really insurance?
An
operational definition of insurance is
that it is
the
benefit provided by a particular
kind of indemnity contract,
called an insurance
policy;
that
is issued by one of several kinds of
legal entities (stock
insurance company,
mutual
insurance company, reciprocal, or
Lloyd's syndicate, for
example), any of
which
may be called an
insurer;
in
which the insurer promises to
pay on behalf of or to indemnify
another party,
called
a policyholder or insured;
that
protects the insured against loss
caused by those perils subject to
the indemnity
in
exchange for consideration
known as an insurance
premium.
In
recent years this kind of
operational definition proved inadequate
as a result of contracts
that
had the form but not
the substance of insurance.
The essence of insurance is
the transfer
of
risk from the insured to one
or more insurers. How much
risk a contract actually
transfers
proved
to be at the heart of the
controversy.
This
issue arose most clearly in
reinsurance, where the use
of Financial Reinsurance to
reengineer
insurer balance sheets under US
GAAP became fashionable
during the 1980s.
The
accounting profession raised serious
concerns about the use of
reinsurance in which
little
if any actual risk was
transferred, and went on to address
the issue in FAS 113,
cited
above.
While on its face, FAS
113 is limited to accounting
for reinsurance transactions,
the
guidance
it contains is generally conceded to be
equally applicable to US GAAP
accounting
for
insurance transactions executed by
commercial enterprises.
Does
the contract contain adequate risk
transfer?
FAS
113 contains two tests,
called the '9a and 9b tests,'
that collectively require
that a
contract
create a reasonable chance of a
significant loss to the underwriter
for it to be
considered
insurance.
9.
Indemnification of the ceding
enterprise against loss or liability
relating to insurance
risk
in
reinsurance of short-duration contracts
requires both of the
following, unless the
condition
in paragraph 11 is met:
a.
The reinsurer assumes
significant insurance risk
under the reinsured portions
of the
underlying
insurance contracts.
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b.
It is reasonably possible that the
reinsurer may realize a
significant loss from
the
transaction.
Paragraph
10 of FAS 113 makes clear
that the 9a and 9b tests are
based on comparing
the
present
value of all costs to the PV
of all income streams. FAS
gives no guidance on
the
choice
of a discount rate on which to base
such a calculation, other
than to say that all
outcomes
tested should use the
same rate.
Statement
of Statutory Accounting Principles
("SSAP") 62, issued by the
National
Association
of Insurance Commissioners, applies to
so-called 'statutory accounting' -
the
accounting
for insurance enterprises to conform
with regulation. Paragraph 12 of
SSAP 62
is
nearly identical to the FAS
113 test, while paragraph
14, which is otherwise very
similar
to
paragraph 10 of FAS 113, additionally
contains a justification for
the use of a single
fixed
rate
for discounting purposes. The
choice of an "reasonable and appropriate"
discount rate is
left
as a matter of judgment.
Is
there a bright line
test?
Neither
FAS 113 nor SAP 62 defines
the terms reasonable
or
significant.
Ideally, one
would
like to be able to substitute values
for both terms. It would be
much simpler if one
could
apply a test of an X percent chance of a loss of Y
percent or greater. Such
tests have
been
proposed, including one famously
attributed to an SEC official
who is said to have
opined
in an after lunch talk that
a 10 percent chance of a 10 percent loss was
sufficient to
establish
both reasonableness and significance.
Indeed, many insurers and
reinsurers still
apply
this 10/10" test as a benchmark
for risk transfer
testing.
It
should be obvious that an
attempt to use any numerical
rule such as the 10/10 test
will
quickly
run into problems. Implicit
in the test is keeping the
10/10 that either are
upper
bonds
for the comment made by
the SEC official therefore,
the rest of this paragraph doesn't
apply.
Suppose a contract has a 1
percent chance of a 10,000 percent
loss? It should be
reasonably
self-evident that such a
contract is insurance, but it
fails one half of the
10/10
test.
It
does not appear that
any brightline test of reasonableness
nor significance can be
constructed.
Excess
of loss contracts, like those commonly
used for umbrella and
general liability
insurance,
or to insure against property losses,
will typically have a low
ratio of premium
paid
to maximum loss recoverable. This
ratio (expressed as a percentage),
commonly called
the
rate
on line for
historical reasons related to
underwriting practices at Lloyd's of
London,
will
typically be low for
contracts that contain
reasonably self-evident risk
transfer. As the
ratio
increases to approximate the present
value of the limit of coverage,
self-evidence
decreases
and disappears.
Contracts
with low rates on line
may survive modest features
that limit the amount of
risk
transferred.
As rates on line increase, such
risk limiting features
become increasingly
important.
"Safe
harbor" exemptions
The
analysis of reasonableness and
significance is an estimate of the
probability of different
gain
or loss outcomes under different loss
scenarios. It takes time and resources to
perform
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the
analysis, which constitutes a
burden without value where
risk transfer is reasonably
self-
evident.
Guidance
exists for insurers and
reinsurers, whose CEO's and CFO's attest
annually as to
the
reinsurance agreements their
firms undertake. The
American Academy of Actuaries,
for
instance,
identifies three categories of
contract as outside the
requirement of attestation:
Inactive
contracts. If there are no
premiums due nor losses
payable, and the
insurer
is
not taking any credit
for the reinsurance,
determining risk transfer is
irrelevant.
Pre-1994
contracts. The attestation
requirement only applies to contracts
that were
entered
into, renewed or amended on or
after 1 January 1994. Prior
contracts need
not
be analyzed.
Where
risk transfer is "reasonably
self-evident."
"Risk
transfer is reasonably self-evident in
most traditional per-risk or
per-occurrence
excess
of loss reinsurance contracts. For
these contracts, a predetermined
amount of
premium
is paid and the reinsurer assumes
nearly all or all of the
potential variability in
the
underlying
losses, and it is evident from
reading the basic terms of
the contract that
the
reinsurer
can incur a significant loss. In
many cases, there is no
aggregate limit on
the
reinsurer's
loss. The existence of
certain experience-based contract terms,
such as
experience
accounts, profit commissions, and
additional premiums, generally reduce
the
amount
of risk transfer and make it less
likely that risk transfer is
reasonably self-evident."
-
"Reinsurance Attestation Supplement
20-1: Risk Transfer Testing
Practice Note,"
American
Academy of Actuaries, November
2005. ...
Risk
limiting features
An
insurance policy should not
contain provisions that
allow one side or the other
to
unilaterally
void the contract in
exchange for benefit.
Provisions that void the
contract for
failure
to perform or for fraud or
material misrepresentation are
ordinary and acceptable.
The
policy should have a term of
not more than about
three years. This is not a
hard and fast
rule.
Contracts of over five years
duration are classified as
`long-term,' which can
impact
the
accounting treatment, and can obviously
introduce the possibility
that over the
entire
term
of the contract, no actual
risk will transfer. The coverage
provided by the contract
need
not
cease at the end of the term
(e.g., the contract can
cover occurrences as opposed
to
claims
made or claims paid).
The
contract should be considered to include
any other agreements, written or
oral, that
confer
rights, create obligations, or
create benefits on the part
of either or both parties.
Ideally,
the contract should contain
an `Entire Agreement' clause that
assures there are no
undisclosed
written or oral side
agreements that confer
rights, create obligations, or
create
benefits
on the part of either or
both parties. If such rights,
obligations or benefits exist,
they
must
be factored into the tests
of reasonableness and
significance.
The
contract should not contain
arbitrary limitations on timing of
payments. Provisions
that
assure
both parties of time to properly present
and consider claims are
acceptable provided
they
are commercially reasonable and
customary.
Provisions
that expressly create actual
or notional accounts that accrue
actual or notional
interest
suggest that the contract
contains, in fact, a deposit.
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Provisions
for additional or return
premium do not, in and of themselves,
render a contract
something
other than insurance.
However, it should be unlikely
that either a return
or
additional
premium provision be triggered, and
neither party should have
discretion
regarding
the timing of such
triggering.
All
of the events that would
give rise to claims under
the contract cannot have
materialized
prior
to the inception of the
contract. If this "all
events" test is not met,
then the contract is
considered
to be a retroactive contract, for
which the accounting
treatment becomes
complex.
Insurer's
business model
Profit
= earned premium + investment
income - incurred loss - underwriting
expenses.
Insurers
make money in two ways: (1)
through underwriting, the
process by which
insurers
selects
the risks to insure and
decide how much in premiums
to charge for accepting those
risks
and (2) by investing the
premiums they collect from
insureds.
The
most difficult aspect of the
insurance business is the
underwriting of policies. Using
a
wide
assortment of data, insurers
predict the likelihood that
a claim will be made against
their
policies and price products
accordingly. To this end,
insurers use actuarial
science to
quantify
the risks they are
willing to assume and the
premium they will charge to
assume
them.
Data is analyzed to fairly accurately
project the rate of future
claims based on a
given
risk.
Actuarial science uses
statistics and probability to analyze
the risks associated with
the
range
of perils covered, and these
scientific principles are
used to determine an
insurer's
overall
exposure. Upon termination of a
given policy, the amount of
premium collected and
the
investment gains thereon minus
the amount paid out in
claims is the
insurer's
underwriting
profit on that policy. Of course,
from the insurer's
perspective, some
policies
are
winners (i.e., the insurer
pays out less in claims and
expenses than it receives in
premiums
and investment income) and some
are losers (i.e., the
insurer pays out more
in
claims
and expenses than it receives in premiums
and investment income).
An
insurer's underwriting performance is
measured in its combined
ratio. The loss ratio
(incurred
losses and loss-adjustment expenses
divided by net earned
premium) is added to
the
expense ratio (underwriting
expenses divided by net
premium written) to determine
the
company's
combined ratio. The combined
ratio is a reflection of the
company's overall
underwriting
profitability. A combined ratio of
less than 100 percent
indicates profitability,
while
anything over 100 indicates a
loss.
Insurance
companies also earn investment profits on
"float". "Float" or available reserve
is
the
amount of money, at hand at
any given moment, that an
insurer has collected
in
insurance
premiums but has not
been paid out in claims.
Insurers start investing
insurance
premiums
as soon as they are collected and
continue to earn interest on them
until claims
are
paid out.
In
the United States, the
underwriting loss of property and
casualty insurance companies
was
$142.3 billion in the five
years ending 2003. But
overall profit for the
same period was
$68.4
billion, as the result of
float. Some insurance
industry insiders, most
notably Hank
Greenberg,
do not believe that it is
forever possible to sustain a profit
from float without an
underwriting
profit as well, but this
opinion is not universally
held. Naturally, the
"float"
method
is difficult to carry out in an
economically depressed period. Bear
markets do cause
insurers
to shift away from
investments and to toughen up their
underwriting standards. So
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a
poor economy generally means
high insurance premiums.
This tendency to swing
between
profitable
and unprofitable periods over time is
commonly known as the
"underwriting" or
insurance
cycle. [6]
Property
and casualty insurers currently make
the most money from
their auto insurance
line
of business. Generally better statistics
are available on auto losses
and underwriting on
this
line of business has
benefited greatly from
advances in computing.
Additionally,
property
losses in the US, due to
natural catastrophes, have exacerbated
this trend.
Finally,
claims and loss handling is the
materialized utility of insurance. In
managing the
claims-handling
function, insurers seek to balance
the elements of customer
satisfaction,
administrative
handling expenses, and claims
overpayment leakages. As part of
this
balancing
act, fraudulent insurance practices
are a major business risk
that must be managed
and
overcome.
Gambling
analogy
Both
gambling and insurance transfer
risk and reward.
Gambling
transactions offer the
possibility of either a loss or a gain.
Gambling creates
losers
and winners. Insurance transactions do
not present the possibility of
gain. Insurance
offers
financial support sufficient to replace
loss, not to create pure
gain.
Gamblers
can continue spending, buying
more risk than they can
afford to pay for.
Insurance
buyers can only spend up to
the limit of what carriers
would accept to
insure;
their
loss is limited to the amount of
the premium.
Gamblers,
by creating new risk
transfer, are risk seekers.
Insurance buyers are risk
avoiders,
creating
risk transfer in terms of
their need to reduce exposure to
large losses.
Gambling
or gaming is designed at the
start so that the odds
are not affected by the
players'
conduct
or behavior and not required to
conduct risk mitigation practices.
But players can
prepare
and increase their odds of
winning in certain games
such as poker or blackjack.
In
contrast
to gambling or gaming, to obtain
certain types of insurance,
such as fire
insurance,
policyholders
can be required to conduct risk
mitigation practices, such as
installing
sprinklers
and using fireproof building
materials to reduce the odds of loss to
fire. In
addition,
after a proven loss,
insurers specialize in providing
rehabilitation to minimize
the
total
loss.
Insurance,
the avoiding, mitigating and
transferring of risk, creates greater
predictability for
individuals
and organizations.
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